Saxo weekly market compass – 9 February 2026

Recap week of 2 to 6 February 2026

Headlines & introduction

February opened with sharp cross-asset swings before markets found a tentative footing into the end of the week. Equity sentiment oscillated between AI-driven sell-offs and forceful rebounds, volatility stayed elevated but orderly, and commodities experienced extreme, liquidity-led moves. At the same time, currencies and rates reflected a reassessment of central bank timing rather than a clear macro break.
Market pulse: investors are recalibrating risk, not abandoning it. 

Equities – US: rotation, not capitulation

Earnings discipline returns as the key market filter.
US equities endured a volatile but ultimately stabilising week. Technology weakness early on, driven by concerns around AI monetisation and capital expenditure, gave way to a sharp rebound into Friday (3–6 February). Semiconductor stocks were central to both moves, selling off on cautious guidance before rebounding strongly as dip buyers returned. The Dow’s relative strength highlighted ongoing rotation rather than broad de-risking.

Away from chips, earnings dispersion remained pronounced. Amazon slipped after flagging a step-up in infrastructure spending, keeping margin discipline in focus, while healthcare outperformed as resilient earnings from large pharmaceutical names supported defensives (5 February).
Market pulse: US equities are rotating internally, with selectivity replacing blanket risk appetite.

Equities – Europe and Asia: local stories take the lead

Policy patience meets stock-level reality.
European markets were broadly rangebound, but index stability masked sharp stock-level moves. Germany and the Netherlands saw selective rebounds in industrials and technology, while healthcare sentiment remained sensitive after weaker medium-term guidance from Novo Nordisk earlier in the week (4–5 February). In the UK, equities faced a mixed backdrop as sterling weakness following a dovish Bank of England decision weighed on domestic names, even as exporters found support (6 February).

Asia outperformed on balance. Japan extended record gains following a decisive election outcome that reinforced expectations for fiscal support and pro-growth policy, lifting domestically focused stocks (6–9 February). China and Hong Kong remained more cautious, with tech shares sensitive to global risk swings despite improving services data.
Market pulse: outside the US, equity performance is increasingly shaped by local policy and earnings narratives.

Volatility – elevated, but controlled

Event risk keeps protection in demand.
Volatility remained a defining feature of the week, but without signs of disorder. The VIX fluctuated between the mid-teens and low 20s, peaking mid-week as technology stocks sold off before easing back as equities stabilised (6–9 February). Short-dated volatility stayed firm, signalling persistent demand for near-term protection rather than fear of a systemic drawdown.

Options markets consistently priced meaningful expected moves around key data and earnings, reinforcing a backdrop where timing risk matters. Volatility compressed into the end of the week, but did not fully unwind.
Market pulse: volatility is being managed, not ignored.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Positioning favours resilience over conviction.
Last week’s options activity suggests investors are staying invested but becoming more deliberate about risk. Rather than stepping away from markets, positioning points to a preference for maintaining exposure while actively preparing for larger and more frequent price swings. This shows up in the increased use of protection and hedging alongside continued upside participation, a mix that typically appears when long-term confidence remains intact but near-term uncertainty is rising.

Across asset classes, this behaviour implies a market where direction matters less than resilience. Investors appear to be planning for uneven performance, sharp rotations, and headline-driven moves rather than a smooth, trend-led advance. The signal from options markets is not panic, but prudence: opportunities remain, yet the cost of being wrong is being taken more seriously.
Market pulse: investors are engaged, but risk management has become central to participation.

Digital assets – stabilisation without conviction

Crypto follows macro risk, not its own cycle.
Digital assets spent the week attempting to stabilise after sharp drawdowns. Bitcoin held a wide range between the mid-$60,000s and low-$70,000s, while Ethereum hovered near the $2,000 area, moving largely in step with equity volatility (4–6 February). Price action continues to reflect macro risk sentiment rather than crypto-specific drivers.

ETF flows reinforced the cautious tone. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw notable outflows mid-week before partial stabilisation, while Ethereum-linked products experienced selective selling rather than wholesale exits. Crypto-linked equities and miners remained more volatile than spot prices, highlighting ongoing deleveraging.
Market pulse: crypto is steadier, but confidence remains conditional on calmer equity markets.

Fixed income – labour data revives the hedge

Rates react sharply, then consolidate.
US Treasury yields fell sharply late in the week as weaker job openings, rising claims, and softer risk sentiment shifted focus back to growth risks (6 February). The 2-year yield briefly dipped below 3.45%, while the 10-year tested the 4.15% area before rebounding as equities stabilised. Credit spreads widened modestly, consistent with caution rather than stress.

In Europe, yields were steadier as the ECB reiterated a data-dependent stance. In Japan, government bond yields pushed higher earlier in the week on fiscal concerns before finding resistance.
Market pulse: bonds are regaining relevance as a portfolio stabiliser.

Commodities – leverage flush dominates price action

Liquidity, not fundamentals, drives extremes.
Commodities delivered the most dramatic moves of the week. Precious metals whipsawed violently after a historic sell-off, with gold recovering above USD 5,000 while silver remained vulnerable to liquidity gaps and forced de-risking (3–6 February). Positioning data showed aggressive reductions in speculative longs, amplifying price swings.

Oil prices eased as US–Iran talks reduced immediate supply risk, while natural gas remained exceptionally volatile after record storage withdrawals and weather-driven reversals.
Market pulse: commodity markets are clearing excess leverage, but stability remains elusive.

Currencies – central bank signals set the tone

Policy divergence, not growth, drives FX.
Currency markets reflected shifting rate expectations. Sterling weakened sharply after a dovish Bank of England hold brought forward expectations for rate cuts (6 February). The yen strengthened later in the week following Japan’s election and renewed official vigilance, while the US dollar traded unevenly as yields swung with risk sentiment.

Commodity-linked currencies were volatile, with the Australian dollar initially supported by an RBA hike before giving back gains as global risk appetite softened.
Market pulse: FX remains a clean expression of relative policy outlooks.

Key takeaways

• Equity markets rotated sharply, led by technology volatility and earnings dispersion.
• Volatility stayed elevated but orderly, with active use of short-dated protection.
• Options flows point to engagement with tighter risk control.
• Bonds reacted strongly to labour data, restoring their defensive role.
• Commodities saw extreme, liquidity-driven price action.

Looking ahead – data and earnings converge

Macro releases and results may reset expectations.
The coming week brings a dense and potentially market-defining calendar. The delayed US January employment report is due mid-week, followed by the January CPI inflation print on Friday. Together, these releases will be critical for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, particularly after recent signals of cooling labour demand. Investors will look closely at wage growth, participation rates, and core inflation momentum to assess whether disinflation is progressing quickly enough to reopen the door to rate cuts later in the year.

US retail sales data will provide an additional lens on consumer resilience following the holiday period, helping investors gauge whether softer labour indicators are feeding through to spending. Alongside the data, a heavy slate of central bank speakers could influence rates and currency markets if guidance shifts.

Earnings remain an equally important catalyst. Technology investors will focus on Cisco for insight into enterprise and AI infrastructure demand, while consumer names such as Coca-Cola and McDonald’s will test defensive growth narratives and pricing power. Results from autos, pharmaceuticals, travel and digital platforms, including Ford, Moderna, Airbnb and Shopify, add further scope for sector rotation. Crypto-linked equities remain sensitive to both macro data and digital asset flows, keeping cross-asset correlations high.
Market pulse: with jobs, inflation and earnings clustered together, this week could crystallise the market’s next macro narrative.

Conclusion

Markets ended the week on firmer ground, but confidence remains conditional. Investors are staying engaged while demanding clearer earnings delivery, calmer macro signals, and improved liquidity conditions. With labour data, inflation, and a heavy earnings slate ahead, the balance between stabilisation and renewed volatility will be tested quickly. Staying diversified and flexible remains essential as February unfolds.