Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 30... Erns & Flash PMIs
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 30…
- Hope everyone had a fantastic wkd & for those of you already kicking your shoes off for some holidays in the Northern Hemisphere summer – enjoy! Well deserved, just how part of training, is not training. Part of working on your craft, is not working on your craft – incidentally all of those (combined) are productive, yet exclusively are counter-productive.
- KVP used to be the paragon of counter-productive, despite believing the very opposite… every worked harder & harder on something, yet progressively felt you were getting worse? Read more & more research, traded more & more… yet the PnL consistently felt like a bucket with no bottom?
- Perhaps your trying to hard & need to work on not working…
- What kind of week are you trying to have?
- Economics: Generally pretty light week with a theme of flash PMIs across the board & a few splotches of consumer confidence. China has the least amount of data due, following its 2Q GDP beat last wk at +3.2%a vs. 2.4%e. Other key focus & a derivative of the underlying economics (to a certain extent) will be US earnings.
- US Earnings: There is a range of big names reporting this wk, including the likes of IBM today, Coca-Cola / Novartis / UBS & Snap on Tues, Microsoft / Tesla / Biogen & Chipotle on Wed, Roche / Intel / Twitter / Daimler & Southwest Airlines on Thu & on Fri we’ll hear from Amazon, Honeywell, American Express, Expedia & Royal Caribbean Cruises.
- Central Banks: Whilst we get minutes out of the BoJ & RBA – Lowe will also be speaking on Tue 10:30 SGT/CST. This wk is really an EM central bank affair, with decisions out of Turkey, South Africa & Russia. On the latter two cuts are expected from 3.75% to 3.50%, & 4.50% to 4.13% respectively.
- Fed Speak: No scheduled Fed speakers
- Holidays: JP is out TH & FR (23 & 24)
- US: House Prices, Existing & New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inv, Jobless Claims, CB Leading Index, Flash PMIs: mfg. 52.0e 49.8r, serv. 51.0e 47.9r
- CH: CB leading Index.
- EZ: GER PPI, Current Account, Consumer Confidence, Flash PMIs: mfg. 49.6e 47.4r, serv. 51.0e 48.3r
- JP: BoJ Mins, Trade Balance, National Core CPI -0.1%e -0.2%p, Flash Mfg. 40.1r
- UK: House Prices, Public Sector Borrowing, Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, Flash PMIs: mfg. 52.0e 50.1p, serv. 51.1e 47.1r
- AU: RBA mins, RBA’s Lowe @ 10:30 Tue 21 SGT/CST, M1 Leading Index, Retail Sales, Flash PMIs: mfg. 51.2p, serv. 53.1p
- NZ: Credit Card Spending, Milk Auction, Trade Balance
- CA: Retail Sales, House Prices, CPI
Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way