Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 30... Erns & Flash PMIs
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 30... Erns & Flash PMIs
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 30…
- Hope everyone had a fantastic wkd & for those of you already kicking your shoes off for some holidays in the Northern Hemisphere summer – enjoy! Well deserved, just how part of training, is not training. Part of working on your craft, is not working on your craft – incidentally all of those (combined) are productive, yet exclusively are counter-productive.
- KVP used to be the paragon of counter-productive, despite believing the very opposite… every worked harder & harder on something, yet progressively felt you were getting worse? Read more & more research, traded more & more… yet the PnL consistently felt like a bucket with no bottom?
- Perhaps your trying to hard & need to work on not working…
- What kind of week are you trying to have?
- Economics: Generally pretty light week with a theme of flash PMIs across the board & a few splotches of consumer confidence. China has the least amount of data due, following its 2Q GDP beat last wk at +3.2%a vs. 2.4%e. Other key focus & a derivative of the underlying economics (to a certain extent) will be US earnings.
- US Earnings: There is a range of big names reporting this wk, including the likes of IBM today, Coca-Cola / Novartis / UBS & Snap on Tues, Microsoft / Tesla / Biogen & Chipotle on Wed, Roche / Intel / Twitter / Daimler & Southwest Airlines on Thu & on Fri we’ll hear from Amazon, Honeywell, American Express, Expedia & Royal Caribbean Cruises.
- Central Banks: Whilst we get minutes out of the BoJ & RBA – Lowe will also be speaking on Tue 10:30 SGT/CST. This wk is really an EM central bank affair, with decisions out of Turkey, South Africa & Russia. On the latter two cuts are expected from 3.75% to 3.50%, & 4.50% to 4.13% respectively.
- Fed Speak: No scheduled Fed speakers
- Holidays: JP is out TH & FR (23 & 24)
- US: House Prices, Existing & New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inv, Jobless Claims, CB Leading Index, Flash PMIs: mfg. 52.0e 49.8r, serv. 51.0e 47.9r
- CH: CB leading Index.
- EZ: GER PPI, Current Account, Consumer Confidence, Flash PMIs: mfg. 49.6e 47.4r, serv. 51.0e 48.3r
- JP: BoJ Mins, Trade Balance, National Core CPI -0.1%e -0.2%p, Flash Mfg. 40.1r
- UK: House Prices, Public Sector Borrowing, Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, Flash PMIs: mfg. 52.0e 50.1p, serv. 51.1e 47.1r
- AU: RBA mins, RBA’s Lowe @ 10:30 Tue 21 SGT/CST, M1 Leading Index, Retail Sales, Flash PMIs: mfg. 51.2p, serv. 53.1p
- NZ: Credit Card Spending, Milk Auction, Trade Balance
- CA: Retail Sales, House Prices, CPI
Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.