Macro Dragon: WK # 34... Fed Minutes, Turkey & Flash PMIs Macro Dragon: WK # 34... Fed Minutes, Turkey & Flash PMIs Macro Dragon: WK # 34... Fed Minutes, Turkey & Flash PMIs

Macro Dragon: WK # 34... Fed Minutes, Turkey & Flash PMIs

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: WK # 34... Fed Minutes, Turkey & Flash PMIs


Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 34
  • Just as a quick heads up, the Dragon will be out after this wk & back-in Sep – got some necessary resetting needed, as well as a personal project that needs to be crushed
  • Off to a brilliant start already on this beautiful Mon morning in the Asia Pacific, with runs under the belt, as well as some soul food for the mind. Its going to be a brilliant limitless wk, KVP can sense it
  • What kind of week are you trying to have?
  • 2nd heads up today we have the always exceptional & super experienced Ole Hansen (Commodities) with a Webinar that will be kicking off 19:00 SGT, if you are not already signed up, please do so here. KVP thinks oil only has one direction to go & that’s up… so things like RUB & BRL are looking especially interesting… not this is more medium to long-term view for now, still some INIL is in order. Ole has been on fuego this year, catching the massive sell-off in oil well ahead of others then the turn, as well as catching the lows of silver almost to the session. It helps that he is an ex CTA from London.
  • Economics: Theme this wk is around minutes due from the RBA & FED, as well as inflation out of CA, UK & EZ, alongside Flash PMI Friday.
  • Politics: With Biden Legacy almost certainly secured by playing QB to Obama & now also likely setting up Harris as the first black & Indian POTUS – assuming they win of course – its really going to come down to key three things: 1. Fiscal Stimulus Package 2. Development of C19 over next few wks & more importantly actual interpretation of that & 3. Social Instability – the paradox on the latter, is it could work to Trump’s advantage & the pathway for things getting calmer for now seems like a low probability. More chaos we get, happier Team Trump will be on “Law & Order” strategy – remember hierarchy of needs.
  • Central Banks: Indonesia, Norway, Philippines, Turkey & Sri Lanka will have rate decision dues this wk. From an EM perspective – yet also undertones to the EZ & EUR potentially at some point – Turkey is likely to continue to be the focus, given the pressure on the currency that has been depreciating even against a globally weakening USD, plus the country running out of reserves. All of this ties back to the structural issues of Erdoganomics, lack of a credible central bank & finance ministry (i.e. it is his son-in-law), let alone sustainable strategic pathway for a country with amazing potential.
  • Fed Speak: So far looks like only Bostic & Daly, yet with FOMC minutes due we may see more speakers popping up after if there seems to be a need to clarify things – would also expect that if US10s got to the 0.80-90bp lvls… don’t be surprised if we see action outside of the scheduled meetings. This could be in the form of jawboning the curve and/or outright YCC.
  • Holidays: No major public holidays on the Macro schedule.


Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (
- Full disclaimer (

Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.