Global Macro Strategist
Summary: So wk ahead from macro perspective will be on Flash PMIs, as well as mins across the board from RBA, ECB & the FOMC. Also countdown for Alibaba listing in HK, which should be next Tues (Nov 26 & yes, Saxo will have shares & CFDs ready to go from day one). Geopolitics is on the same themes: US / CH Phase One Deal almost done (risk to the downside? Long rumour / short fact?), HK heating up, Impeach Investigation cont. Rate decisions SA, ID & HK.
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations)
2019-Nov-18
A replay of the call is available HERE
VIX: 12.05, -53%
Wishing everyone a great wk ahead, keep in mind that back end of next wk is Thanksgiving in the US
Namaste
-KVP
-
Summary of Prior Week:
Trump speech calling for neg. rates & going after Fed again
Powell Testimony: US economy is the star economy. Cont. to have base case of reasonable growth. Risks remain the same, sluggish global growth, trade developments & low CPI
Current Fed = Sidelines
COT Report: [@Ole_S_Hansen]
Week Ahead
Key Focus:
Central Banks (SGT):
FOMC Speakers (SGT):
Other (SGT):
Econ Data:
Chartography & Price Action
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
