Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Daily Cross Asset Views. Today we re-highlight the wk ahead; noting the US does not get back in until Tues. the wk will be dominated by a focus on flash PMIs globally, as well as a number of key inflation figures. Central bank wise, apart from Fed speakers - its really going to be all eyes on Turkey to see if they cut more than expected given Erdogan's obsession with lower rates despite elevated inflation. Geopolitical wise - lots of focus on the deflationary ripples from Covid-19, as well as what kind of stimulus (magnitude, time, where) is going to be coming from China. On the US side, Sat 22 Feb will see the Nevada Caucus.
2020-Feb-17
(All times are SGT)
For Tues key readings are likely to be RBA minutes, Ger ZEW survey, CA mfg. Sales & US Empire State mfg. readings.
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It is going to be a phenomenal week, wishing everyone the very best possible.
Namaste,
KVP
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
