Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Global stock markets stage a roaring comeback following a several positive points of economic data for the US economy. The US inflation report confirmed that prices are under control and the Fed can afford to cut interest rates soon. Meanwhile, the US consumers showed their confidence by spending more than expected on retail goods allaying slowdown fears. The Fed's St. Louis chief said he supports a rate cut as inflation is back on track and the job market is not overheating.
Earnings Roundup
Some companies also had a reason to celebrate, as they reported better-than-expected earnings. Walmart, the US retail giant, raised its outlook for the year, as it lured more shoppers looking for bargains. In Europe, UBS impressed the investors with its Q2 results and its wealth management unit, which attracted more new money despite the tough market environment.
European Banks
Starbucks rally
But the star of the week was Starbucks, which made a bold move by firing its CEO and hiring Chipotle's CEO Brian Niccol as its new leader. Starbucks shares jumped by 24% on Tuesday, marking its largest one-day gain ever. Starbucks has been facing some challenges in getting customers to splurge on its pricey coffees, as it reported two consecutive quarters of sales declines. Brian Niccol, who joined Chipotle in 2018, has turned the Mexican chain into a success story in the struggling restaurant industry. Now, Starbucks shareholders are eager to see if he can work his magic on the coffee giant as well.
The big rebound in equities
Geopolitical tail risks
However, not everything is rosy in the world. The markets face some serious risks due to two events. First, Iran vows to take revenge for the killing of Hamas' senior leader in Tehran. The retaliation could involve cyber-attacks, infrastructure damage, or proxy violence. Second, Ukraine advances deeper into Russian territory, causing a gas crisis in Europe. Prices stay high at €40 a megawatt-hour despite low demand.
Commodities Weekly
The big macro event in week 34 comes from the Jackson Hole economic symposium with the focus on Jerome Powell’s insights which are expected Friday. Thursday is the day for data focus with PMI figures from the Eurozone and the US as well as the weekly US Initial jobless claims. The earnings season is less busy but Palo Alto Networks (Mon), the world’s largest cyber security company, will be the key watch on earnings. Other highlights include Snowflake (Weds), Target (Weds), Baidu (Thurs).