Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
An indecisive week for broad base equity sentiment. Markets came off as valuation froth was questioned by U.S. Bank CEOs and Michael Burry announced a considerable short position on top AI names. Dip buyers kept the bull case in play, but caution is lingering. Earning season continued to shape stock specific direction while action in commodities tempered this week as gold consolidated around the $4,000 level. The Bank of England held the policy rate as expected but sterling and gilts remain jittery with the upcoming budget. More below on this week’s key stories.
Tech outperformers retreat
Global equities experienced an abrupt shake out as valuation warnings and AI fatigue hit tech favourites. Volatility picked up as investors turned more sceptical even without a clear catalyst for the price swings. Palantir sank 7.9% despite raising full-year revenue guidance to about $4.4bn, as investors questioned lofty multiples.
Should we take corrections with no obvious drivers more seriously?
Scam Ads?
News out this week that Meta is earning a fortune on advertisements they categorise as “scam” or “fraudulent”. Thursday close saw the name down 4.5% on the week but strong revenue and AI potential keep investors interested albeit with mixed emotions.
Meta Platforms: the good, the bad, and the big AI question
Strong earnings and a OpenAI boost
Last week Amazon reported a stellar quarter with sales and profit beats boosting the share price 12%. The stock continued up another 5% on Monday after a deal was announced to supply OpenAI with computing power via Nvidia chips.
Amazon reports results: three engines drive profitable growth into the AI build out
Crypto prices slump
Cryptos dropped in a volatile week and remained fragile amid the broader risk-off tone. A Large liquidation wave swept through at the beginning of the week. Flows into spot-bitcoin ETFs and large-holder holdings appear to be weakening, signalling that the structural support may be under strain. Ethereum shows even more signs of stress with sizeable relative outflows. Alt-coins such as Solana, XRP and Cardano are tracking the downdraft.
Crypto and blockchain Theme Basket
New week’s key earnings highlights to watch include Barrick Mining, Coreweave, Occidental Petroleum, Rocket Lab (Monday). Sea Ltd, AngloGold Ashanti, Nebius Group, Oklo (Tuesday). Infineon, Bayer AG, Cisco, Tencent (Wednesday). Disney, Applied Materials, Hapag Lloyd, JD.com (Thursday). Sony, Allianz, Richemont (Friday). Economic data to look out for next week includes China Oct PPI, CPI (Monday) Germany Oct CPI (Wednesday), UK preliminary Q3 GDP and US Oct CPI (Thursday). EU preliminary Q3 GDP (Friday).