Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Today's US macro data lights and shades.
The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is out at a solid path, at 55.0, which is the highest level since August vs 54.5 expected and 53.9 prior. This strong performance is fueled mostly by strength in business activity and inventories. New orders, employment and new export orders all fell, but we need to highlight that the key employment index is still well-oriented at 55.2.
It constitutes a strong confirmation that the broad US economy is very resilient to the trade war and that the global manufacturing weakness (which has been pointed out by last week’s manufacturing miss) hasn’t contaminated the service sector. It also confirms the more general theme that is playing out in early 2020 that a recession is unlikely in the short-term.
On a more negative note, US durable goods orders remain weak with a print for November out at minus 2.1% vs minus 2% expected.
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
