Volatility ramped after Israel mounted a retaliation strike on Iran Thursday night (18th April). We also highlight development in currencies where conditions in Asia have moved closer to possible intervention. Finally, we summarise the latest for semiconductors after ASML & TSMC latest earnings.
Input to help revamp your investments
- Is your portfolio designed to weather the new political era?
Crude oil remains responsive to geopolitical risk
- Crude oil's risk premium ebbs and flows
Could we see a yuan devaluation hit financial markets?
- A test for PBoC patience
Price corrections are starting to take place across Semiconductor firms
- ASML earnings
A very busy week for corporate earnings with the key earnings releases expected drive sentiment in equities being Tesla, Meta, Caterpillar, Microsoft, and Alphabet (Google).
Bank of Japan policy meeting scheduled for 26th April.
In fixed income attention turns to the upcoming 2-, 5-, and 7-year U.S. Treasury auctions, along with preliminary U.S. GDP figures and the PCE deflator. Additionally, Lagarde's speech at Yale University (22nd April) is on the radar.
Later this week volatility will also be influenced by a myriad of economic news to be published (S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Durable Goods Orders, GDP, Initial Jobless Claims and Core PCE Price Index) which will have effect on future interest rate decisions.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
