Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 8 February 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 8 February 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 8 February 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 8 February 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  The S&P 500 touched the 5,000-mark, driven by another gain in tech stocks with the Nasdaq 100 also closing at record highs. In after-hours trading, Disney rose by more than 6%, and Arm Holdings surged by 38%, fueled by strong earnings. Mixed sentiment in Asia with the Nikkei hitting a new 34-year high while China sentiment moderated again before New Year given the lack of follow-through on support measures, and after consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in January since 2009. Bond markets were choppy amid mixed NYCB headlines and a strong 10-year auction, keeping the dollar sideways. Natural gas slumps on mild winter weather with crude oil higher for the fourth day, supported by diesel-market strength and Middle East focus.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: The divergence between Hong Kong equities and mainland Chinese equities with links to state-owned enterprises continues to widen in today’s session with CSI 300 up 1.6% and Hang Seng down 1.2%. US and European equity futures are pointing slightly higher as the earnings season continues to be a supportive factor for sentiment. Yesterday’s positive vibes across companies tied to the wind industry might carry those stocks and renewable energy stocks higher into next week. This morning in Europe’s pre-market, Dutch payment company Adyen reports better than expected net revenue and EBITDA margin 4%-points above estimates pushing shares 8% higher in pre-market trading. Maersk reports slightly better than expected Q4 revenue on Red Sea conflict but says that shipping oversupply will remain issue in 2024. Maersk is also spinning off its Svitzer unit and sees global container trade at +2.5-4% in 2024.

FX: Dollar traded sideways amid lack of key data in the US and Fed’s pushback mostly priced in, while choppy yield moves underpinned amid mixed NYCB headlines. The main mover overnight was USDJPY moving higher after BOJ’s Uchida said that continuous BOJ rate hikes are unlikely. CHF underperformed after SNB forex reserves rose for the second consecutive month in January, potentially raising talks about currency interventions. Meanwhile the AUDUSD was unable to push above 0.6540 as AUDNZD broke below the key 1.07 support. EURUSD maintained a slight upward bias and could be heading for a test of 1.08 with ECB’s economic bulletin in focus today.

Commodities: US natural gas slumped back below $2 for the first time since March last year as an unusually mild winter is ending, while today's inventory report is expected to show a 75 bcf draw, compared with a 5-year average decline of 193 bcf. Crude oil, however, rose for a third consecutive day amid signs of stronger demand as US gasoline inventories fell more than expected. EIA reported a decline of 3.15mn barrels last week in gasoline inventories while distillate stocks dropped by 3.2m barrels. Our Commodity Strategist discusses his views on crude oil and fuel market in this article. Gold recovered, despite recent dollar and yield strength, as strong physical demand, especially from China, continues to offset any short-term “paper” selling from ETFs and speculators in the futures market.  Corn and soybeans touch new multi-year lows on grain glut worries ahead of today’s supply and demand report from the US government.

Fixed income: Treasury yields edged modestly higher by around 2 basis points across the yield curve, with the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield settling at 4.43% and 4.12%, respectively. The auction of $42 billion of 10-year notes saw robust demand, as expected, stopping through for the first time in a year. We remain skeptical about today's $25 billion 30-year auction. To know more about our take on the upcoming US Treasury auctions, click here. In the meantime, demand for long-term sovereigns in Europe remains robust, with Belgium receiving €60 billion of demand for the sale of €5 billion 30-year bonds. Today we have the ECB Economic bulletin published, and ECB’s Vujcic, Wunsch and Lane speaking.

Macro: The narrative from Fed speakers continued to be one of pushback to imminent rate cut expectations. Kugler (voter), a new member of the Fed board, said that every meeting is live, but she broadly highlighted progress on inflation but remained in the camp that the job is not yet done. Barkin (voter) also echoed that it makes sense to be patient on rate cuts. Collins (non-voter) said the Fed is likely to cut rates later this year if the economy meets expectations, adding monetary policy is well positioned for the current outlook. China CPI and PPI tumble confirmed that deflation is firmly embedded in the economy with CPI coming in weaker than expected at -0.8% vs. -0.5%. The deceleration in prices proves that a more proactive policy stance is needed. Barring the surprise reserve requirement ratio cut of 50bps cut last month, there has been very little follow-up to make any significant changes. Real rates are too high for an economy that is struggling and dealing with high levels of debt.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 uptrend to break 5K could move to 5,110. Nasdaq 100 uptrend, eyeing 18K. DAX closed above 17K, potential to 17,255-17,410. EURUSD bouncing from 1.0730 key support likely to around 1.08 before resuming down trend, below 1.0730 next support 1.0660. USDJPY having another go at key resistance at 148.80, a close above looking at +150. EURJPY likely to test 161 resist. USDCHF uptrend likely move to 0.8820resistance. AUDUSD below key strong support at 0.6520. Gold range bound 2,065 – 2K. 10-year T-yields bouncing from previous low at 3.78, key resistance at 4.20

Volatility: Volatility continued its descent, with the VIX closing at $12.83 (-0.23 | -1.76%), reflecting a quieter market mood. However, the VIX's own volatility, measured by the VVIX, saw a rise to 80.54 (+3.57 | +4.64%), indicating underlying uncertainties. Meanwhile, the SKEW-index, although slightly decreased, remains elevated at 151.41 (-1.41 | -0.92%), suggesting a sustained concern for outlier movements in the market. The optimism in the markets is palpable as the S&P 500 edges closer to the significant 5000 mark, with only a few points in the gap. Today's economic indicators, such as the Initial Jobless Claims and the 30-Year Bond Auction, may introduce some fluctuations. Overnight futures have shown minimal changes, signaling a steady opening.

In the news: Disney Earnings Top Views on Cost Cuts, Parks; Shares Climb (Bloomberg), Alibaba shares drop 5% after revenue miss, $25 billion boost to buyback plan (CNBC), NYCB names new chairman after Moody’s downgrades bank’s credit rating to junk (CNBC), US Commercial Real Estate Contagion Is Now Moving to Europe (Bloomberg), PayPal sees flat profit in 'transition year,' shares fall (Reuters), Arm forecast beats estimates as AI spurs chip upgrades, shares surge (Reuters), Ford shares surge on dividend boost, lower EV spending (Reuters), Tesla asks which jobs are critical, stoking layoff fears (Reuters), It's the Year of the Dragon. Here's your guide to the Lunar New Year (USA Today)

Macro events (all times are GMT): ECB Economic Bulletin (0800), EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change, exp –75 bcf vs –197 bcf prior (1430), USDA’s World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates (1600), US Treasury 30-year auction (1700), Speakers: BoE’s Dhingra, Mann; ECB’s Elderson, Lane; Fed’s Barkin.

Earnings events: A busy earnings week is ending. Key focus in the US today is earnings from L’Oreal and ConocoPhillips.

  • Today: NTT, Siemens, AstraZeneca, Unilever, Philip Morris, S&P Global, L’Oreal, ConocoPhillips, Adyen, ArcelorMittal, Maersk
  • Friday: Toyota Electron, Hermes International, PepsiCo, Coloplast

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (
- Full disclaimer (

Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.