Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions, they do not constitute any trade or investment advice of any kind.)
To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here
APAC Global Macro Morning Brief
Next week, is the last “real” week of the year before the classic year-end school & Northern Hemisphere Winter holidays, & the year-end lack of liquidity comes into play
We will of course also have the Sun Dec 15 deadline on the US/CH Trade deal, which the market now feels is back on track for a successful announcement
Whilst the Fed & ECB will be on the agenda over Wed & Thu next wk, there really should be nothing new from those meetings – which makes them worth watching!
Speaking of the Fed & the repo market, great to see congress men & women getting into the weeds of things with FOMC member Quarles a few days back - & yes expect more liquidity to be needed into year-end & start
Here is a small excerpt…
“Mr. Quarles, over the weekend the New York Times published a profile on your regulatory approach. And notably, you have chosen to spend your time in this role — in your first 21 months in office you met with Goldman Sachs 24 times;
you met with JPMorgan 19 times; you met with Morgan Stanley 17 times; and with Citi[group] 12 times. In that same time frame, how many consumer groups did you meet with?”
The spirit of the questioning is right on point…
i.e. In theory the Federal Reserve should be an entity that serves the many & not the few…
In practice… well lets start off with the fact that the Fed is privately owned. There are people who have been in the markets for decades who are not even aware of this...
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When you are going through your version of “TTT”, The Tunnel of Turbulence – be it pnl loss or big drawdown, or challenges on the family or career front, & sometimes all the above
Its worth taking a step back & focusing on the day to day process of things
Its actually not the most talented or smartest or fittest that tend to rise to their respective commitments be it:
Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champion, Phenomenal Trader or Investor, World Class Teacher, Sustainable NGO Founder, Best Parent / Manager / Spouse / Sibling / Olympian / Author / Actor / Comedian / Golfer / etc. you can be
Its those that can at least do these three things consistently over-time:
1. They celebrate & are grateful for the little things that life gives on a daily basis… When you are grateful, anger-frustrations-pain-ego-“challenges” peter away… It can be as small as appreciating a warm good morning greeting, to enjoying a coffee & watching sunlight play over green carpeted mountain vistas
2. They fall in love with the process… for them, its not a grind… its just a natural part of their lifestyle, there is nothing else they would rather be doing with their time
3. They tend to have some form of daily Self-Capex or Self-Love: be it meditating, working out, journaling, quiet block of time for themselves etc… They understand (consciously or sub consciously) that Lifestyle = Edge or Lifestyle = No Edge
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The above reminds me of an interesting framework & approach from my man Jocko, GOOD.
%$#! hits the fan?
GOOD! Great opportunity to learn from it & get better
Did not raise enough capital?
GOOD! Let’s regroup & subtract what is not working & double down on what is or/& try new strategies
Had a big night out & struggling in the morning?
GOOD! Time to hit the treadmill & sweat it out, these are the workouts that are game changing to one’s character
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Have a beautiful day everyone & diversified epic wkd up ahead – do something awesome for yourself, as well as for someone else - without their knowledge
Namaste
-KVP
Today:
Other:
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
