Global Macro APAC Morning Brief
Summary: Global Macro & Cross-Asset snapshot from APAC to kick-off your day
Tue 3 Sep 2019
O/N & Levels:
Not too much on, given US (& CA) was out given the labor day wkd – still US EQ futures are down c. -70bp since Fri levels in early Asia Tue open. DXY is breaking out higher given its multi-year high close on Fri & the US trade weighted dollar index is at all time highs
A strong US is chocking global growth & causing particular issues for EM, the Fed, Trump & Commodities in general - the whispers on Saxo 4Q Outlook say that it will focus predominantly on the USD, so please stay tuned for that
EZ mfg. PMIs were in-line to better as a whole & more importantly China Caixin mfg. index has a massive beat 50.4a 49.8e - too early to call the turning of the ship, yet 2-3 months of this could signal a bounce in the making… Worth noting that we have had a number of head fakes in China this year
Sterling at two wk lows given Bojo moves & Parliament counter moves… he’s potentially threatening calling a general election… ignore the noise for now… from KVP’s view… worst thing that can happen is another useless extension… best thing is some form of clarity on the future... be that in hard Brexit or no hard Brexit… it’s the uncertainty that kills economic growth, animal spirits & investor appetite
US back in & on that front final mfg. PMIsis & ISM mfg will be key with 50.0 & 51.2 expected respectfully across the two
AU retail sales, current account & of course RBA – mkt expecting no move from former given previous back to back cuts to 1%. Worth bearing in mind RBNZ surprise -50bp, as well as this will be first RBA meeting post USDCNH shooting through the 7.00 handle. A weaker yuan basically acts as a tax on Australia's exports into China
Have an amazing Tue & epic wk ahead, profitable trading everyone
For those that missed the Macro Monday Call from earlier this wk covering the action packed wk ahead, you can access it here & catch the replay link here....
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.