Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Based on preliminary data, our leading indicator, global credit impulse, is giving signs of life on the back of slightly better China credit impulse and strong credit push in the United States.
Based on preliminary data, global credit impulse _ the second derivative of global credit growth and a major driver of economic activity _ is giving signs of life. It is still in contraction, at minus 3.8% of GDP, but slowly moving upwards. Currently, more than half of the countries in our sample, representing 69.4% of global GDP, have experienced an acceleration in credit impulse over the past quarter. The improvement in global credit impulse is mostly due to slightly better China credit impulse and strong credit push in the United States.