French Election Update : IT’S OVER ! French Election Update : IT’S OVER ! French Election Update : IT’S OVER !

French Election Update : IT’S OVER !

Macro
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  The campaign is just starting. But the election is a done deal. President Emmanuel Macron will be easily re-elected whoever his opponent might be (at the moment either the far right leader Marine Le Pen or the center right conservative Valérie Pécresse). The main question mark is whether Macron will be able to win a comfortable majority at the June 2022 legislative election. This is far from certain.


French Election Preview published : A few months ago, we published our preview for the 2022 April presidential election. The first round will happen on 10 April and the second round on 24 April. It gives a broad overview of the current state of French politics and the main economic reforms which are currently put forward by the lead candidates. See here for the full report.

Macron wins it all : All recent polls show Macron is still miles ahead of the pack in the first round (~26-27%). Other candidates are far behind. The far right leader Marine Le Pen and the winner of the center right primary Valérie Pécresse are neck-to-neck, ~16-17%. The Zemmour boom is over for good, in our view. The former TV pundit is at 12-13%. This is high. But this is not enough to hope to make it to the second round. The Left is polling at historically low levels. Considering the mediocrity of most left candidates, this is not surprising. This is well deserved. The former third man of the 2017 presidential election, Jean Luc Mélenchon, is ~9-10%. The Socialist candidate, Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo, is at best ~3-4%. This is the beginning of the end for the Left, or at least for the Socialist Party who used to be one of the two most important political parties in France after WWII. According to an IPSOS poll released on 7 January, only 12% of people who say they will vote for Hidalgo in the first round believe she can make it to the second round. This is historically low. Expect the Socialist Party to disappear and lose most of its deputies (currently 29 out of a total of 577 deputies) at the legislative election of June 2022. In the second round, all polls released since the past summer show Macron winning comfortably whoever his opponent might be. This is still early days. But we believe the election is already over. Unless there is an unexpected turn of events, Macron will be re-elected for a second term (2022-2027). It is, however, unclear whether he will be able to win a comfortable majority in Parliament, as it was the case in 2017 (314 deputies). Several deputies from the ruling party have already informed they will not run again. This is a bigger question mark than the presidential election for France’s politics in 2022, in our view.

Will Zemmour be able to run ? In the French political system, presidential candidates need to secure a minimum of 500 sponsorships from national or local elected officials from at least 30 different departments or overseas collectivities, with no more than a tenth of these signatories from any single department. Several candidates reportedly have the required sponsorships (Hidalgo, Pécresse, the Green candidate Yannick Jadot). Mélenchon and Le Pen will likely get them before the deadline of 4 March. But this is less certain for Zemmour. He officially acknowledged he is facing difficulties. He claimed that he was prevented by « the elites » from gathering them. This might be partially true. But, at the end of the day, we believe that he should be able to run.

What to watch now: Besides the polls, we are focused on the « Popular Primary » - a left primary organized by a group of civil society activists. The online vote is to take place from 27 to 30 January. Already 100,000 citizens have registered (for comparison, there were around 122,000 registered voters to the Green primary of September 2022). The aim is to pick only one official left candidate for the presidential election. It will never happen. All the lead candidates refuse to participate (Mélenchon and Jadot especially), with the exception of the former Hollande minister, Christiane Taubira. Hidalgo was initially against this initiative, then supported it and now is against it again because Jadot is not taking part of this. This is a big mess. In our view, the Left is weak not because Macron is strong and has a solid electoral base. The Left is weak because the candidates are mediocre. Some candidates embrace wokism and culture war instead of defending the middle-class workers and focusing on social issues. Others have unrealistic economic proposals (multiplying by two at least the salary of teachers, for instance). All of them share a common characteristic : they have an ego problem. 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.