Macro Dragon Special S1E1 - Initial Thoughts...
This is the first of a series of Macro Dragon Specials that will come through over the year - in this first series we will attempt to capture KVPs current thoughts on global macro and cross-assets over 2020, current outlook and assumptions, current strategic positioning views, risks, hedges and contingency plans... as well as what seems to be consensus vs what the market does not seem to be focusing on. Note these are very different from the daily Macro Dragon cross-asset views
FX Breakout Monitor: USD breaking higher in slow motion
The big EURUSD pair finally broke to the new local lows yesterday in the wake of the dovish ECB meeting, but faces a bit level almost immediately to the downside and a test next week in the form of the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the attempt to take sterling to new highs in the wake of firm UK PMIs today was rebuffed.
FX Update: ECB wrap, sterling eyes flash PMIs
The ECB meeting was seen as mostly a disappointment as it generated little excitement on the outcome of the policy review now under way. Lagarde largely refused to answer the interesting questions. In world news, coronavirus headlines remain a concern, but most markets are oddly immune to this issue at the moment. Elsewhere, sterling is on the move after flash January PMIs.