Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Broader market sentiment eased early last week as US/China talks seemed to show progress. Shipping shares received a jolt & softening geopolitical tensions reduced support for haven assets, while equity benchmarks advanced in a risk-on move that has S&P 500 eyeing the $6000-level again. A USDJPY reversal amplified throughout the week, the UnitedHealth share-plunge continued, and President Trump made headlines securing deals in Middle east. Read more below: The Art of the Deal – Trump in Middle East Trade Truce Boosts Markets UnitedHealth in freefall Yen rally catching momentum
This week, Trump’s Middle East tour unlocked over $2.8 trillion in deals across; aviation, AI, defense and energy, boosting equities in those sectors. However, geopolitical volatility remains an investment risk. Oil prices also moved lower on talks of a nuclear deal with Iran.
Trump's Middle East dealmaking blitz: What does it mean for investors?
On Monday, US/China trade talks led to a significant 90-day reduction in bilateral tariffs. Markets cheered the headlines boosting equity benchmarks. The USD caught a bid until traders questioned peak pricing. Despite the risk-on shift in sentiment, markets stay cautious as the political situation remains fragile and the tariff-effect on the economy is yet to be felt.
US-China trade truce only emphasizes timeless investing truths
Shares of UnitedHealth plunged to a 5 year low as multiple adverse headlines hit the company throughout the week. There was a surprise resignation of the CEO while the firm also suspended 2025 guidance. This was then followed by news of a US justice department investigation into criminal Medicare fraud.
How a healthcare titan lost 54% in weeks
USDJPY has been reversing lower this week, moving from 148.65 high to currently around 145.53 level. The move could have been amplified by recent waning of USD strength after a longer period, despite simultaneously reaching multi-month highs in long US treasury yields. John Hardy looks at the recent moves & outlines the technical picture, read more below:
USDJPY reversal a green light for USD bears?