14fxL

Key Stories from the past week: Trump trade talks & UnitedHealth plunge

Macro
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo

Broader market sentiment eased early last week as US/China talks seemed to show progress. Shipping shares received a jolt & softening geopolitical tensions reduced support for haven assets, while equity benchmarks advanced in a risk-on move that has S&P 500 eyeing the $6000-level again. A USDJPY reversal amplified throughout the week, the UnitedHealth share-plunge continued, and President Trump made headlines securing deals in Middle east. Read more below:

The Art of the Deal – Trump in Middle East
This week, Trump’s Middle East tour unlocked over $2.8 trillion in deals across; aviation, AI, defense and energy, boosting equities in those sectors. However, geopolitical volatility remains an investment risk. Oil prices also moved lower on talks of a nuclear deal with Iran.
Trump's Middle East dealmaking blitz: What does it mean for investors?

Trade Truce Boosts Markets
On Monday, US/China trade talks led to a significant 90-day reduction in bilateral tariffs. Markets cheered the headlines boosting equity benchmarks. The USD caught a bid until traders questioned peak pricing. Despite the risk-on shift in sentiment, markets stay cautious as the political situation remains fragile and the tariff-effect on the economy is yet to be felt.
US-China trade truce only emphasizes timeless investing truths

UnitedHealth in freefall
Shares of UnitedHealth plunged to a 5 year low as multiple adverse headlines hit the company throughout the week. There was a surprise resignation of the CEO while the firm also suspended 2025 guidance. This was then followed by news of a US justice department investigation into criminal Medicare fraud.
How a healthcare titan lost 54% in weeks

Yen rally catching momentum
USDJPY has been reversing lower this week, moving from 148.65 high to currently around 145.53 level. The move could have been amplified by recent waning of USD strength after a longer period, despite simultaneously reaching multi-month highs in long US treasury yields. John Hardy looks at the recent moves & outlines the technical picture, read more below:
USDJPY reversal a green light for USD bears?

Next week’s economic data releases includes China Apr Industrial Production, EU Apr CPI (Mon), RBA Rate decision (Tues), UK Apr CPI (Wed), EU May preliminary PMIs, US May preliminary S&P Global PMIs (Thurs), German Apr GDP (Fri). Earnings highlights are Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks, Vodafone Group (Tuesday). TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Snowflake, Baidu, XPeng (Wednesday). Intuit (Thursday). A Moody’s “one-notch” downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating on Friday also made a lot of headlines which may carry into the new week.

 


Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.