Chart of the Week: World trade data

Macro 5 minutes to read

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary: The latest world trade data tend to confirm a stabilization in global trade growth, at least in the short term, mostly resulting from a positive base effect.

Click here to download this week’s full edition of Macro Chartmania.

The CBP world trade volume is back to positive territory, though it remains very weak compared to levels reached last year. The three-month moving average was out at 0.4% year-on-year in April 2019 versus the lowest point reached this year at minus 0.4% in past February.

The next release of the CPB world trade monitor is scheduled for 25 July 2019.

Looking at more up-to-date trade data, especially weekly cost of freight proxies, the stabilization is more obvious. After seasonal adjustment, the 20-day moving average of the Baltic Dry Index is likely to turn positive this week. The latest data released last week was out at minus 3% year-on-year. We also notice the same trend towards stabilization for the Harpex index, which is a good measure of trade in consumer goods.

However, stabilization may be short-lived as risk remain elevated due to the trade war, potential currency war and China’s slowdown that has not stopped yet. In our view, weak global trade will continue to negatively weigh on growth in H2, despite more dovish central banks and upcoming global fiscal stimulus.

Quarterly Outlook Q2 2023: The Fragmentation Game

Bank runs raise the stakes in the Fragmentation Game
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.

Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Read article
China in the global Fragmentation Game
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.

Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Read article
A whole new world of higher interest rates
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?

Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Read article
Equities: Into the world of unknowns
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?

Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
Read article
India and Southeast Asia offer calm in the storm
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?

Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
Read article
Protecting a long stock market position from turbulence
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?

Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
Read article
Commodity market focus: DM weakness versus EM strength
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?

Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
Read article
FX: What happens when a tightening cycle ends before inflation is defeated?
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?

John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
Read article