FX Breakout Monitor: USD poking at breakout levels amidst record calm
Record low volatility and a recent past littered with failed directional momentum trades are not inspiring confidence for breakout prospects, but the US dollar is poking at important upside break levels in places if it continues higher from here after starting with a recent break higher in USDJPY.
FX Update: Low beta blues, sterling churning
The ongoing melt-up in risk appetite continues to see little feed-through into the developed market currencies traditionally positively correlated with risky assets. Elsewhere, not even the impressive strength in the Chinese renminbi is driving consistent pattern in China-exposed emerging market currencies.
FX Update: Where to focus now that US-China trade deal delivered
The US-China trade deal has now been signed and the market is now left wondering to what degree China will live up to the promises it contains, particularly the large scale purchase of US products. Markets seems to indicate clear sailing, but our concerns remain, starting with Fed messaging on policy and the current state of the US economy.