Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Are USDJPY and EURJPY forming Shoulder-Head-Shoulder patterns that would send the pairs much lower or will buyers regain control for a retest of key resistance levels.
GBPJPY uptrend intact and could retest 172 resistance.
USDJPY multiple scenario could play out in USDJPY. The pair is still above rising trendline but could be in the process of forming a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern.
That will not be confirmed though until a move below the possible Neckline. However, even if it breaks below the potential Neckline there is strong support at around 133. The 100 daily Moving Average and the Ichimoku cloud adds to the support strength around 133.
IF USDJPY breaks below all 133 there is down side potential to around 130.
However, RSI is still showing positive sentiment and there is no divergence indicating USDJPY to bounce back higher and have another go at the strong resistnace at 137.85.
EURJPY could also be forming a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern but needs to break below the potential Neckline for a move down to around 145-144.
Similar to USDJPY RSI is still positive with no divergence supporting higher levels for EURJPY. Next few days could be decisive. If bids are coming back in EURJPY so the S-H-S pattern does not unfold there is upside potential to 155.
GBPJPY trading in a rising channel like pattern. Friday it formed a Bullish Engulfing candle engulfing the two previous days which indicates GBPJPY could have another go at the resistance at around 172.15.
If GBPJPY closes above 172.15 there is further upside potential to 180.50
If GBPJPY breaks below the lower rising trendline a sell-off down to around 165.35 could be seen.