Technical Update - USDJPY rebounding strongly. EURJPY and AUDJPY Set for key tests. GBPJPY breaking key resistance Technical Update - USDJPY rebounding strongly. EURJPY and AUDJPY Set for key tests. GBPJPY breaking key resistance Technical Update - USDJPY rebounding strongly. EURJPY and AUDJPY Set for key tests. GBPJPY breaking key resistance

Technical Update - USDJPY rebounding strongly. EURJPY and AUDJPY Set for key tests. GBPJPY breaking key resistance

Forex 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

USDJPY has bounced from the 0.786 retracement (blue Fibonacci levels) at 143.33, broken above its upper falling trendline and is close to touch the 0.618 retracement (black Fibonacci levels) at 147.12. USDJPY could rebound to the 0.786 retracement at 148.12.

To establish a bullish trend a daily close above 149.40 is required.
Strength and trend indicator RSI is still showing negative sentiment but with divergence as illustrated by the two blue lines – the closing price 27th August was lower than the 5th August closing price. That is an indication of a trend exhaustion supporting the rebound scenario

To reverse this rebound picture a daily close below 143.40 is required.   
Source all charts: Saxo Group
EURJPY is bouncing from key support at around 160.55.

The bounce comes after EURJPY has dipped below the support a few times but ended above every single time and now seems set to test the key strong resistance at around 164.00.
A daily close above 164.00 is likely to fuel a rally towards 167-168. In that area the 55 and the 100 DMA’s are coming down likely restricting further upside potential short-term

A break and close below 160.00 expect selling pressure to resume with potential down to 159.00-156.45.

RSI is still showing negative sentiment and if RSI is seen back below the 40 threshold it would be strong indication of EURJPY to turn bearish
AUDJPY seems to be establishing a bullish trend after breaking above minor resistance at around 99.04.

If closing above 99.91 and RSI is closing above 60 threshold, a bullish trend will be confirmed.
Upside potential to the 0.618 retracement at 102.05

A daily close below 97.25 will demolish the bullish picture and establish a bearish move 
GBPJPY is breaking above resistance at around 192.00. If closing above a bullish trend has been established.

An RSI close above 60 threshold will confirm the bullish scenario with sort-term upside potential to the 0.786 retracement at 195.33.

It all depends on whether RSI can close above 60 threshold or not:
If rejected GBPJPY could slide back and test the support at around 188.93.
A close below will establish bearish trend 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.