Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Major trend reversals in EURUSD, USDJY and Dollar Index?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: USD weakness seems to have come to and end. Reversal patterns in EURUSD and Dollar Index
USDJPY bouncing off strong support area
Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
EURUSD has over the past couple of months formed rising wedge like pattern on the daily chart. EURUSD has now broken bearish out and below support at around 1.08..
RSI divergence has warned about a weakening of the uptrend in EURUSD and a looming correction/trend reversal. RSI is still bullish however, and needs to close below 40 for that to reverse.
Support at around 1.0480 close to the 0.382 at 1.04
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
EURUSD has over the past couple of months formed rising wedge like pattern on the daily chart. EURUSD has now broken bearish out and below support at around 1.08..
RSI divergence has warned about a weakening of the uptrend in EURUSD and a looming correction/trend reversal. RSI is still bullish however, and needs to close below 40 for that to reverse.
Support at around 1.0480 close to the 0.382 at 1.04
However, on weekly chart EURUSD came last week within few pips touching the 0.786 retracement at 1.1057 before collapsing forming a Shooting star like candle. A Shooting star indicates a top and reversal. (Shooting star is a candle with a tall upper shadow but no lower shadow. A body that is fairly small at the lower end of the candle)
RSI is still bullish with no divergence which tells us that higher levels cannot be ruled out. A move above last week’s peak at 1.1033 will most likely push EURUSD to 1.1170 - 1.12.
If EURUSD closes below 1.0480 the medium-term trend has reversed to bearish.
USDJPY jumped Monday morning to test minor resistance at around 132.87 and the 55 daily SMA. The Jump came after USDJPY had shown RSI divergence for weeks. A surge4 Friday off the upper trendline in the falling channel have laid the foundation for a bigger bounce.
RSI is still be bearish however, and needs to close above 60 to reversal that. If USDJPY closes above 133 there is short-term potential to 0.382 retracement and the 200 daily SMA. Strong resistnace at around 137.85.
Medium-term the support area at 126.30- 126.85 seems to be too strong for Bears to push USDJPY below. Currently hovering around the 55 weekly SMA which is rising there could be further upside despite RSI being negative.
Some resistnace at around 134.77.
The Dollar Index (DXY) jumped back above previous resistance at 101.30 AND back above 103.20. Currently testing the 55 daily SMA and close to the upper falling trendline. A close above is likely to fuel a rally up to around the 200 daily SMA and the 0.786 retracement od the falling channel at 106.35. Resistance at around 105.00-105.50.
Weekly chart: Thee weeks in a row the Dollar Index has closed above key support at 101.30 and has formed an Evening Doji morning. (Circled). It indicates of a bottom and reversal.
A reversal that is likely to lift the Index back above the 55 weekly SMA to test the 105.50 resistance area .
A close below 101.30 and the Dollar Index will resume and extend the down trend
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy