Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURUSD taking out 1.09 support the 55 MA lends a helping hand but there is downside potential to 1.0745
GBPUSD trying to get back above rising trendline. Might be rejected and correction to resume
EURGBP hovering around key level but looks offered with downside potential to 0.8575
Dollar Index rejected at 102.56. Will it slide back to key support?
EURUSD is finding support at the 55 MA after taking out key support at 1.09. No strong support until around 1.0745 which is also the 0.618 Fibo retracement of the March- April uptrend.
However, RSI is still showing positive sentiment after rebounding from 40 threshold so if EURUSD is moving back to close above 1.09 the uptrend could resume with upside potential to 1.1170.
GBPUSD (Cable) is trying to move back above the short-term rising trendline. If it succeed we could see another push at the strong resistance at around 1.2667. But if rejected the 0.382 retracement and support at around 1.2344 is likely to be tested.
EURGBP 0.8716 seems to be a Pivot level the pair is trying to get back above.
However, even if EURGPP manages to claw its way back and close above 0.8716 declining 21, 55 and 100 Moving Averages will put a damper on the short-term upside potential. The 200 Moving Average and the upper trendline in what could be a falling channel pattern add to the resistance.
Down trend is still intact with RSI showing negative sentiment but there is divergence suggesting the downtrend is weakening.
However, no strong support until around 0.8575
Dollar Index rejected at the 0.382 retracement at around 102.56. The declining 55 and 100 Moving Averages are adding to resistance that could send the Dollar Index back lower ofr a re-test fo key support at 100.68.
RSI rejected at 60 threshold currently supports the bearish scenario.
However, if Dollar Index closes above 102.60 (Monday peak) a move to the 0.618 retracement at 103.84 could be seen.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.