Technical Update - EURCHF bottom and reversal pattern indicates rebound to around parity
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURCHF has broken bullish out of its falling wedge like pattern i.e. broken its falling trendline. After a breakout of a falling wedge the price should at least be able to reach the highest peak in the wedge in this case around 0.9945. That is roughly around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the June to August sell off.
RSI has been showing divergence for some time indicating the selling pressure was weakening. It is still below 60 i.e. show negative sentiment. A close above 60 will support further upside in EURCHF.
A close below 0.9580 will demolish the bottom and reversal scenario
On the weekly chart EURCHF has formed a Doji Evening bottom and reversal pattern – unless the price collapses before the Friday close resulting in a negative end to the week. The Doji Evening indicates a reversal which could take EURCHF to the resistance at around 0.72. A close above and parity is to be tested with a possible spike up to 10.01.
The bottom and reversal scenario is supported by divergence on RSI.
On monthly chart EURCHF has found support at the 0.618 Fibo retracement at 0.9657. The Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern described in previous analysis will still be intact if we get a bounce to around 1.00-1.01.
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.