The G-10 rundown
USD – likely to hinge on the dovish/hawkish impression from the Fed and whether bond yields pivot strongly either way – with lower longer yields and risk off more USD supportive.
EUR – weak confidence surveys out of Europe this morning as Europe is crying out for a new policy response that the ECB can’t really give. And President-to-be Lagarde has already been out today discussing uneven playing field on fiscal among EU members.
JPY – as we note above, JPY crosses possibly pivotal on the incoming FOMC and BoJ meetings, where the focus is on whether a pivot back to lower yields brings the yen some relief after its recent run lower.
GBP – the election scenario doesn’t clear anything up and actually opens some daylight for a full Bremain scenario – the polls will bear close watching and incoming data not likely to provide much fundamental support in the interim.
CHF – a breakout in yields to the upside apparently more needed than the generally complacent risk appetite backdrop to break EURCHF up through the line of resistance above 1.1050.
AUD – the AUDUSD rally pulling into the last bits of the local range here – looking pivotal on the USD view here – with the full pull above 0.7000 needed to really begin neutralizing the long established descending channel.
CAD – again, both BoC and FOMC up today – 1.3000 the pivotal chart level if the USD is weaker post FOMC and the Bank of Canada shows it is comfortable with market assumptions.
NZD – AUDNZD on the bid again – potential toward 1.1300 eventually, but may need further catalysts as rate spreads still flat. The ANZ business survey up tonight in New Zealand.
SEK – EURSEK needs to turn tail here ahead of 10.85 to suggest the recent rejection of the prior rally was supposed to generate further bearish potential.
NOK – EURNOK looked like it might be flashing signs of exhaustion yesterday when Norges Bank’s Olsen strongly indicated that he is looking through the current NOK weakness and not raising any alarm bells yet: “To the extent that we think the krone movement is a fluctuation and may swing back again, then in that sense we would look past it.”
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1000 – Euro Zone Confidence Surveys
- 1215 – US Oct. ADP Employment Change
- 1230 – US Q3 GDP Estimate
- 1300 – Germany Flash Oct. CPI
- 1400 – Bank of Canada Rate Decision
- 1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories
- 1800 – US FOMC Meeting
- 2100 – Brazil Selic Rate Announcement
- 0000 – New Zealand ANZ Survey