FX Chart Highlights: The USD is down, but not yet out

USDJPY – another follow up: bears have upper hand, but need follow on selling
In last week’s chart highlights post we had a look at the pivotal 109.00 area in USDJPY for signs that the pair was melting higher. After the FOMC, a smart rally in long bonds and perhaps concerns about the US-China trade deal combined to take the pair back lower, just after the kneejerk reaction to the FOMC meeting actually took the pair above the key 109.00 area break level briefly (arguably, the intraday break level never really fell, i.e., resistance held). Alas, the sell-off and rejection of that break higher has in turn yet to prove itself as long bonds have consolidated, and it wouldn’t take much of a reversal back higher to keep the upside break scenario in play – perhaps a close above the 109.00 level. Until then, bears still have their tactical case intact and would get further satisfaction from a close below 108.00.

NZDUSD – triple crunch-time?
It is an interesting session here for NZDUSD, as a very clearly etched upside-down head and shoulders formation with the sloping neckline around 0.6425 has been in play over the last couple of sessions, as has the old low from late 2018 and the attempt to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci level – a triple-significant line in the sand for this pair. At this point today, the pair is struggling to remain clear – today’s close looks pivotal on that account for whether the USD continues to stumble versus the smaller currencies or once again puts up a fight just after teasing over the edge. If the pair punches back down into the range, focus on the lower red dashed line around 0.6235 will quickly resume, as this is the major cycle low all the way back from 2015.

EURSEK – follow-up after throwback rally rejected
Last week, with EURSEK trading close to 10.80, we noted that it was time for the pair to find resistance and head back lower if the bearish implications of the prior large sell-off wave (symmetric rejection wave) were to find confirmation. EURSEK did indeed find that resistance just north of 10.80 and within just a few pips of the ideal 61.8% retracement level for this kind of market turning pattern near 10.8250. Now, the bears have to prove themselves further as key downside pivot zones near – the 10.60+ support area of the September lows and the 200-day moving average snaking around near the same level, but first up is the trendline that has already been under strain at the lows of today’s sessions.