FX Breakout Monitor: Curious combinations

Chart: EURGBP

We add a EURGBP short signal to our list on the recent break and hold of the range lows – we are looking for decent progress lower over the next eight days ahead of the key March 12 vote on PM May’s Brexit deal.

Chart: USDJPY

USDJPY threatening a fresh high close for the cycle today after daily direction changes over the last few days. The important 200-day moving average lies just a bit higher.

Chart: EURAUD

We note the EURAUD situation with interest, given the very clear range demarcation around 1.6000 if the pair manages a close above that level in the days ahead for a possible run at the 1.6300+ top. Stay tuned.

Chart: USDTHB

USDTHB looking higher here and close to a local pivot break that would take it to a new high close for the last 19 days and possibly set in motion a short squeeze for higher levels. Adding cyclical interest, the old major low from early 2018 was around 31.08, a bit higher than the recent cycle low.

REFERENCE: FX Breakout Monitor overview explanations

The following is a left-to-right, column by column explanation of the FX Breakout Monitor tables.

Trend: a measure of whether the currency pair is trending up, down or sideways based on an algorithm that looks for persistent directional price action. A currency can register a breakout before it looks like it is trending if markets are choppy.

ATR: Average True Range or the average daily trading range. Our calculation of this indicator uses a 50-day exponential moving average to smooth development. The shading indicates whether, relative to the prior 1,000 trading days, the current ATR is exceptionally high (deep orange), somewhat elevated (lighter orange), normal (no shading), quiet (light blue) or exceptionally quiet (deeper blue).

High Closes / Low Closes: These columns show the highest and lowest prior 19- and 49-day daily closing levels.  

Breakouts: The right-most several columns columns indicate whether a breakout to the upside or downside has unfolded today (coloured “X”) or on any of the previous six trading days. This graphic indication offers an easy way to see whether the breakout is the first in a series or is a continuation from a prior break. For the “Today” columns for 19-day and 49-day breakouts, if there is no break, the distance from the current “Quote” to the break level is shown in ATR, and coloured yellow if getting close to registering a breakout.

NOTE: although the Today column may show a breakout in action, the daily close is the key level that is the final arbiter on whether the breakout is registered for subsequent days.