Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Speculators turned buyers of dollars for the first time in seven weeks during the week to January 21. With GBP and JPY selling being the main drivers the market was left unprepared for the risk off that followed news about the corona virus outbreak in China.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Before corona virus worries became the major market driver speculators bought dollars for the first time in seven weeks. In the week to January 21 the dollar long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index rose by $0.9 billion to $3.8 billion. The change was primarily driven by another week of JPY selling together with the first weekly reduction in GBP longs since late November.
The AUD long reached a fresh 18 month high while the record long in MXN expanded again to reach the equivalent of $4.5 billion. Both are under pressure this Monday as commodities take a hit with iron ore, one of Australias biggest export goods, taking a 6% hit overnight in Asia. Emerging markets weakness has driven USD/MXN to near one-month high.
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
