COT: GBP selling spiked ahead of May’s resignation COT: GBP selling spiked ahead of May’s resignation COT: GBP selling spiked ahead of May’s resignation

COT: GBP selling spiked ahead of May’s resignation

Forex 4 minutes to read
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Speculators reversed course on the dollar during the week to May 21. Following two weeks of selling they turned buyers to the tune of $1.3bn against ten IMM currency futures.


Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending May 15, click here

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending May 15, click here 
Selling was led by EUR (-6k lots) and not least GBP where the 23k lots addition to the net-short was the biggest weekly sale since September 2017.  Overall the net flows were mixed with buying of CAD and JPY somewhat keeping the overall change to a minimum.
The net-short in Cboe VIX rose by 16k following two weeks of aggressive buying. The change, however, was driven by long liquidation – not fresh selling – as the VIX steadied below its 200-day moving average. 

In bonds the front end of the curve was bought as the trade war and incoming data pointed to softening US growth and with that increased risk of the Federal Open Market Committee moving towards a sooner-than-expected rate cut. 
What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.

In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.

In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.

Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.


Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.