Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Speculators bullish dollar conviction remains fragile with only modest buying seen despite the Greenback toying with a two-year high.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Speculators bought a modest amount of dollars during the week to October 1. Four consecutive weeks of buying have taken the net long against ten IMM currency futures to $17.6 bn, still only around half the $34.6 bn recorded back in April. This despite seeing the dollar toy with a two-year high in recent weeks.
They increased short positions on the EUR and CHF, while marginally adding to net-long positions on the JPY and CAD. The minor currencies saw some action with record short positions seen in NZD and BRL, while the MXN was bought to maintain its role as the second most favored long (carry) after the Greenback
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy