Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: FTSE 100 got hit by selling just short of all-time highs. But uptrend is intact and FTSE100 is likely to test and break above all-time high shortly
FTSE250 dips below 20K testing support in a correction that could drop lower. Trend is up however, and is likely to resume in a few days
Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
FTSE 100 has retraced just a short of testing all-time highs and a correction could be seen. But the trend is still up and the bullish RSI with no divergence indicates FTSE 100 could have a go at the all-time high shortly.
FTSE100 has for now bounced from the 0.236 retracement but could correct down to the 0.382 or even 0.50 retracement at around 7,656/7,589 before buyers will come back in to lift the Index. .
Both short- and medium-term trend is up and FTSE 100 could reach to test 8K within a few weeks.
RSI divergence explained: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.