2chartz M-compressed

Technical Update - EuroStoxx50/EU50 and DAX/GER40 could be resuming uptrend after bounce

Equities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

  • A close below support at 4,976 for the EuroStoxx 50 could prove to be a false break. A daily close above 5,053 will confirm this.
  • The EU50 CFD has closed above the key support at 4,966 twice and could resume its uptrend with a close above 5,052

     

  • The DAX's bounce from key support at 17,900 suggests the uptrend could resume. A crucial factor will be whether it can negate the top and reversal pattern, with resistance at 18,326 being pivotal
  • For the GER40 CFD, the key resistance is at 18,328, and key support is at 17,862

The EuroStoxx50 Index closed Thursday below the support level at around 4,976, suggesting a possible confirmation of a corrective downtrend.
However, today's bounce indicates the potential for this to be a false break. If the Index closes above 5,053 and the RSI closes back above the 60 threshold, it would support a scenario where the recent break was misleading and an uptrend might resume.

Despite the positive signals, the bearish engulfing top and reversal pattern remains intact and a concern. This pattern will stay valid until there is a daily close above 5,122. A close above 5,053 would be a strong indication that the top and reversal pattern wiill be challenged, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

Should the EuroStoxx50 Index drop again and close below 4,976, it is likely to trigger a sell-off towards the support level at around 4,888.

stoxx50 d 1204
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
The EU50 CFD has twice spiked below support at 4,966 only to close above, and it seems likely to resume an uptrend. A daily close above 5,052 and an RSI close above the 60 threshold will confirm this scenario.
eu50 d 1204

Yesterday, the DAX tested the lower rising trendline and key support at around 17,900 but managed to close above it. With today's bounce, the DAX could resume its uptrend. The RSI is still exhibiting positive sentiment with no divergence. Combined with a potential close above its falling trendline, this is indicating that the DAX could resume its uptrend.

If the DAX closes above 18,326 and the RSI closes above the 60 threshold, this scenario will be confirmed.

Should the DAX close below 17,900, the rebounding scenario is likely to be demolished, with the DAX likely to sell-off down to 17,620

Dax d 1204
The GER40 CFD bounced strongly in late trading yesterday and seems likely to resume an uptrend. A daily close above 18,328 or an RSI close above the 60 threshold, whichever comes first, will confirm that this scenario is likely to play out.

Conversely, a daily close below 17,862 will confirm a downtrend with potential down to around 17,612.
ger40 d 1204

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy

    Outrageous Predictions

    China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.