Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Leading European Indices DAX and EuroStoxx50 are in a short-term downtrend but with but rebound after last week’s sell-off has been strong. Look out for key reversal levels and supports
DAX Broken bearish out of rising wedge like pattern formed over the past 4-6 months. Three times last week tried buyers to lift DAX above 55 daily MA only to close below. The Index is in a short-term downtrend with lower lows and lower highs. To reverse that a closed above 15,300 is needed.
The Index is trading in the cloud (shaded area) and close below will further confirm the downtrend with potential down to strong support at 13,792. Support at around 14,400 which DAX came close to test last week .
GER40 cfd. Short-term support around 14,668 and 14,400. A close above 15,305 will reverse trend to uptrend
EuroStoxx50 broken bearish out of rising wedge like pattern. Key support at around 4,024. And strong support at around 3,7884. A close above 4,215 will reverse EuroStoxx50 to uptrend.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.