Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: April has started out well on the Stock market and the positive vibe could continue for a few more weeks. EuroStoxx50 within few cents to test all-time highs. DAX could test its all-time high in coming weeks.
DAX uptrend is intact and with no RSI divergence the Index could continue to strong resistance at around 16,290A close below 15,482 is likely to put the uptrend on pause possibly even lead to a correction down to around 15K.
Medium-term uptrend is weakening with divergence on RSI but an RSI close above its falling trendline could challenge that picture. If that scenario plays out DAX could all-time highs at around 16,290.
To reverse the medium-term uptrend a close below 14,458 is needed
GER40 cfd levels. Upside potential to 16,298. A close below 15,479 could lead to a correction down to around 15K
EuroStoxx50 likely to test all-time highs at around 4,415. A correction could be seen if hitting that level, but the uptrend will be intact unless Stoxx50 closes below 4,286 which can lead to a sell-off down to around 4,150
A close above 4,415 could further fuel the buying interest and lift the Index to around the 1.618 projection at 4,536.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.