Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Apple Investors didn’t like the new products launch and the stock price has indication of an exhaustion of the strong uptrend. A larger correction could be in the cards. End of week closing is likely to be key
Yesterday Apple opened higher and was lifted in the early part of the session. Then sellers took control for most of the trading session and the stock closed lower.
I guess the market was not happy with the new product launch.
Right at the open today sellers are still in control and are likely to be in control for the next few days sending the stock price to test lower rising trendline in the channel Apple has been trading for the past couple of months. Over the same time period RSI has been showing divergence i.e., the RSI values have been dropping while the stock price has been rising. That is a sign of a weakening trend.
However, the trend is still up and a close below support at around 170.76 is needed for that scenario to change.
If Apple indeed closes below 170.76 a sell-off down to around 160.25 is in the cards.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.