Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AEX25/NETH25 cfd in uptrend. Eyeing 770
BEL20/BELG20 cfd in downtrend finding support
CAC40/FRA40 range bound. Break out needed for direction
AEX 25 broke resistance at around 759 but seems to be rejected at 770 with a Shooting Star like candle Friday. If AEX gets a down day to day it is confirmed and would indicate a top and reversal.
However, the reversal can be a short-lived correction as the RSI is showing positive sentiment and with no divergence thus indicating higher Index levels are in the cards. A test of the February peak at around 777 could be seen.
An Index close below 759 would put the uptrend on hold but to demolish this bullish picture a close below 741 is needed.
BEL20 is in a downtrend finding support at around 3,667. RSI is in negative territory supporting the bearish picture.
A bearish trend that could take BEL 20 down to around 3,600-3,570 if the Index closes below 3,667
For BEL20 to reverse to an uptrend first indication would be a close above its short-term falling trendline.
A close above 3,815 will confirm an uptrend to 3,900.
CAC40 is caught in a range between 7,500 and 7,300. A close either above or below is needed for direction.
A close above 7,508 is likely to push CAC40 to new all-time highs with potential target at 7,775
A close below 7,300 could see CAC40 to drop to around 7K
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.