Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Last week Nasdaq 100 broke above its falling trendline and seemed to be ready for further upside. But an unsuccessful attempt at breaking above resistance at 12,176 Friday followed by a negative day yesterday could prove to be a good entry point for establishing short positions.
Nasdaq looks set for renewed selling pressure that could test June lows.
If RSI closes below its rising trend line it is a strong indication of this bear scenario to unfold.
This bearish scenario will be demolished and reversed if Nasdaq closes above 12,175. If that plays out, we could see Nasdaq test resistance at 12,458 and possibly 12,893.
Similar picture on USNAS100 cfd/Nasdaq 100 future. 12,227 is the resistance to be taken out if the bearish outlook should be reversed.
RSI is currently testing its rising trend line
Rebound in S&P 500 seems to run out of steam before the Index could even test its falling trendline.
RSI closed yesterday below its rising trend line indicating the bearish mood is returning.
If S&P 500 breaks below 3,738 the bear trend has resumed, and June lows are likely to be taken out.
If on the other hand, S&P 500 closes above 3,919 the bearish scenario is put on hold. However, there is strong resistance at 3,975 i.e. probably not much upside if the the 3,919 level is taken out
US500 cfd/S&P 500 future. Rejected at 0.382. RSI is at the time of writing below its rising trendline and if US500 closes below its short-term rising trendline there is great likelihood that it will test June lows.
To demolish this likely bearish scenario to play out, a break above 3,920 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.