Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX25 is testing and at the time of writing seems to be rejected at resistance at 653. If AEX manage to close above, there could be more upside to 670-672. But if AEX slides back and closes below 641 bear trend is set to resume.
RSI is still negative and needs to close above 60 to change that. There is still divergence on RSI indicating AEX could move higher in a correction but 653 needs to be broken
If AEX drops back below 641 RSI is likely to break below 40 and its slightly rising trendline which would be a strong indication of new lows on AEX25.
CAC40 closed above resistance at 6,040 but seems to struggle to get further upside momentum. A falling trend line and 55 and 100 SMA are coming down and seem to put a lid on the upside.
RSI is still below 60 testing its lower rising trendline. RSI must break either. If closing above 60 sentiment has changed to positive but if RSI breaks below the rising trend line it will indicate CAC40 could drop back to 5,859-5,794. An RSI close below 40 will indicate further downside.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.