How can such a small downgrade move an entire industry this much? What are analysts missing? Earlier this month a leading investment bank said about Adyen that it is a great business. Since Adyen lost its trust with investors in August the stock price has declined and the company has kept quiet saying it will make a business update November 8, 2023 at their Investor Day 2023. What is taking so long? One thing is for sure, Adyen’s revenue growth target of +25% is dead with today’s news from Worldline, but the question is what is the new structural growth rate?
Observing this meltdown in payment stocks with very little concrete reflection among equity analysts one has to wonder what is really going on. One explanation is provided in a Barron’s article back in July saying that Apple Pay’s increasing popularity is a big problem for PayPal and thus maybe also the wider payments industry. Could it be that Apple Pay over time will take over the digital payment infrastructure. Recently Apple ventured into buy-now-pay-later and is constantly adding new features to their wallet and Apple Pay solution. The threat from Apple should be a key consideration for any investor before piling into these falling payment stocks.