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Summary: Beware of the bears! Saxo technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson identifies four very similar and decidedly bearish trends in four of the world's leading equity indices. These are levels to watch.
First, Germany's Dax, which has broken below medium-term trend (and a triangle-like pattern) trading a few points above support at 11,854. Beware of the Body Gap between that level and 11,754. A close below 11,754 could trigger a sell-off down to around 11250. Above 12,125 the bear picture demolished The Cash Index is shown below to better illustrate the gap:
The S&P500 (CFD:US500) : The cash Index closed just a few points off 2,798 support (close Tuesday was 2,802). The S&P500 future is currently trading below. The next support, which is not very strong is around 2,722. RSI bearish. A bear trend would seem to be confirmed if the S&P500 does not close above 2,798 tonight. Above 2,900 and the bear picture is demolished.
Nasdaq 100 (CFD:NAS100). Yesterday Nasdaq 100 cash index closed below its strong support at 7,300. Next support area is 7,000-
Nikkei 225 (CFD: JP225): Hovering around support area around 20,925. Spiked below a few times. RSI bearish. Next support around 20,000.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
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With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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