Head of Equity Strategy
Summary: We observe more signs of stabilisation in equities with volatility markets normalising and Italian government bonds coming back from the lows. But this week will be the ultimate test of sentiment with earnings from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook and Alphabet (Google's parent) and these stocks have helped the equity market bouncing back faster than expected. Equity valuations remain extremely elevated and thus good earnings and a positive outlook from these major companies are important for sentiment.
Last week was the first real test in weeks of sentiment in equities with Friday showing buyers are still controlling the game. Earnings have had a similar pattern of generally disappointing and the majority of companies skipping their outlooks as the economic environment is too uncertain. Technology stocks continue to be bid higher and volatility futures are close to be in contango for the first time in almost two months. Italian government bonds (BTPs) are also bid this morning as Italy is preparing to open its economy again. Many small positive signs although the oil market is still sending distressing price signals due to massive demand and supply imbalance.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
