During the .com bubble there was only one Pre-peak/major correction (Index dropped 33% in two months) occurring late in the Awareness phase. After that the market sky rocket until it collapsed.
Are we in a bubble scenario?
It has been an ongoing discussion amongst Economists and Technical Analysts the past couple of years; are we in a bubble scenario? For sure some of the characteristics have been there but we needed at blow off top to perfect the scenario. Maybe that is what markets are warming up to.
With the new all-time highs in Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 this could be the blow off top which could conclude the bubble scenario. As previously mentioned, a blow off top is an almost vertical move created by investors suffering from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). FOMO seems to dominate a lot of the market activity, as mentioned in these two articles
Apparently, there is a lot of money on the side line ie. in cash or short-term bonds yielding next to nothing.
And if you’ve got cash, where should you put your money in hope to get a return? Interest rates are low/negative, Commodities are not really moving or too risky and not easily tradable for most investors, which leaves equities as the only asset class. With new highs in many US Indices you don’t want to look like a fool staying on the side line. You are hit by FOMO.
A widespread FOMO could lead to a blow off top. Looking at the Nasdaq composite from 2010 and up to date (below) the Index certainly has a pattern that resembles many bubble patterns we have seen over the past 100 years in financial markets.
There is no strict rule for the time between last major correction and the blow off top.
However, when we see a bubble scenario*) with identical characteristics ie. two pre-peaks (two major corrections) as there seem to be here historically the Blowout top is concluded from a couple of months and up to typically 12 months after the pre-peak low. However, some do take longer but usually never more than 18 months **).Comparing Dow Jones 1920’s to today’s market
Would you be able to tell the difference between the Dow Jones Index 1923-1929 prior to the crash and the Nasdaq Composite? Or the Dow Jones back then and today? Not much difference.