Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent crude oil seems to like the 0.618 Fibonacci retracements.
Following the possible Blow out top Brent dropped sharply to $96.75 which is around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend since mid-December. Dark blue Fibo set up.
A bounce followed taking Brent to $123.74 3which is 0.618 retracement of the price collapse in early March. Green Fibo set up.
A new sell-off has followed where Brent oil is now trading around the 0.618 retracement of the mid-March price bounce. Orange Fibo set up.
If Brent crude oil bounces from here it is likely to break the falling trend line and higher price levels should be expected. RSI is still showing bullish sentiment and there is no divergence.
If Brent breaks below $105 the medium term lower rising trend and 55 SMA are likely to be tested maybe even key strong support at $96.75.
Dutch TTF Gas is range bound between €93 and 132.75. Break out is needed for direction. 21 daily SMA seems to offer some resistance. However, the _RSI is still showing bullish underlying sentiment and there is not divergence indicating break out is likely to be to the upside. .
The strong rebound in ECX Carbon Emission following its price collapse seems to have come to an end with strong resistance around €81.50. If Carbon drops below €75 200 SMA offer some support but RSI indicates we could see lows at around €55 could be tested. Support at the 0.618 retracement at around 65.31.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.