Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Brent and WTI Crude oil turning bearish testing rising trend lines. Gasoline sell off will give some relief to car drivers. Henry Hub gas price collapses while Dutch gas is trading higher testing key resistance levels
Brent Crude oil is testing lower rising trend line and 100 SMA. Technically it is in a short term down trend. (Lower highs and lower lows) However, RSI needs to close the day below 40 to confirm that picture.
If Brent closes below the trend line, there is minor support at around $101.30 and strong key support at 96.75. To reverse the short-term bear trend and for long term bull trend too resume a close above 121.25 is needed.
At the time of writing WTI Crude oil is trading below rising trend line testing the 0.618 retracement and RSI is below 40 ie. Showing negative sentiment.
If that is also the picture at the end of the day down trend is confirmed. Support at around at the 0.764 retracement at $100.2 and at 98.20. Key strong support at 92.90.
To reverse the bearish trend a close above 118.97 is needed.
Gasoline has broken bearish out of rising channel establishing a down trend currently testing 0.50 retracement and the 55 SMA. If Gasoline closes below the medium-term rising trend line a minor support at around $350 and 330.
Several times Dutch TTF Gas has failed its attempt to close above strong key resistance at $127.50. Another attempt is seen this morning. If Dutch Gas closes above, we could see a test of last weeks peak around 149. IF it fails once again to close above resistance at 127.50, we could see a set back to around 111. A close below 111 is likely to set Dutch gas back below 100
Henry Hub Gas has led the down trend in Energy markets. Close to test key support at around $6.40. A minor bounce should be expected from here. A close below could lead to continued sell off down to support around 5.52. To neutralise the down trend a close above 8.03 is needed
Carbon Emission is trading in a tighter and tighter sideways range forming a Symmetrical like triangle pattern. AS close outside of the trend lines is needed for direction.
Upside breakout we could see Emission at 92.75 possibly 98.50
A bearish breakout there is support at 75.85.
2024: The wasted year
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.