Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Gold is finding its legs, even against CNY
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Today's Asian session saw USDCNY near the crucial 7.00 level, with the currency's positive correlation to gold now fading in light of the equities rout and the consequent safe haven bid for the yellow metal.
Today's Asian session saw the Chinese yuan touch a 10-year low at 6.9682 versus USD, thereby closing in on the key $7 level.
Gold’s weak performance was until recently tied strongly to the direction of the yuan, which has fallen by 7% so far this year. That correlation is now fading with the rout in equity markets and lower bond yields attracting a safe haven bid. This bid, combined with continued short-covering, has been strong enough to mitigate the headwind from the stronger dollar against most currencies, with JPY being the exception.
Gold’s weak performance was until recently tied strongly to the direction of the yuan, which has fallen by 7% so far this year. That correlation is now fading with the rout in equity markets and lower bond yields attracting a safe haven bid. This bid, combined with continued short-covering, has been strong enough to mitigate the headwind from the stronger dollar against most currencies, with JPY being the exception.
Given gold’s relative strong performance so far this week (+0.8%) despite the stronger dollar (+0.9%) it is likely that resistance at $1,240/oz could be challenged and broken very soon. Not least considering a potential nervous session ahead in stocks following disappointing results from Amazon and Alphabet yesterday.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy