Energy: Continued crude oil weakness saw speculators cut their net length in WTI and Brent for a second week to an eight-month low. This in response to demand worries caused by the rapid spreading of the delta coronavirus variant, not least in China were a relatively small number of cases has led to renewed shutdowns and restrictions on movements. The combined long was cut by 48k lots to 566k, but just like the previous week reduction, the change was solely driven by long liquidation with no signs of appetite for naked short selling. Probably due to the belief the disruption will be transitory and that OPEC and friends, if necessary, will adjust production to support the price.
Monday morning comment: Crude oil trade lower for a third day with Brent back below $70after key oil consumer China released weaker than expected retail sales and industrial production data and following Friday’s very weak sentiment reading. These developments support IEA’s latest downgrade to demand for the months ahead as a resurgent delta coronavirus variant is impactingdemand across the world. Also, in the US there are signs shale producers are ramping up activities with the number after the number of rigs last week rose by 10 to 397, marking the biggest jump since April.
Metals: Speculators more than halved their gold and silver longs during a very troubling week for precious metals. The week covered a renewed rise in bond yields following Fed vice-chair Clarida’s hawkish comments and the strong jobs report culminating in last Monday’s flash crash. In response to these for metals adverse developments, the gold net length was cut by 52% to 51k lots while the silver length collapsed by 54% to just 12k lots, a fifteen months low.
Platinum, which during the week saw its discount to gold rise to $800 from an April low at $500 saw continued selling with the recently established net short more than doubling to a 13-month high at 9k. Rangebound copper was sold for a second week with the net long dropping 19% to 32k lots, thereby reversing half the buying seen since the June low at 19k lots.
Monday morning comment: Gold finished last week on a firmer footing after a much weaker than expected University of Michigan sentiment (see below) helped deflate some of the buildup taper angst with Treasury yields and the dollar traded lower ahead of the weekend. Both paused their retreat overnight with gold and silver drifting lower as a result. A major band of resistance has emerged between $1790 and $1815 while support needs to hold around the $1750 area. Following last Monday’s flash crash, speculators slashed their gold and silver net longs by more than 50% leaving the market exposed to fresh buying on a break higher. This week the market will be watching a speech by Fed chair Powell, as well as minutes of the Fed’s last meeting.