Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: COT on commodities in week to October 22 showed hedge funds buying futures across all three sectors. Buyers returned to oil, gold and silver albeit at a modest pace while grains once again saw the bulk of demand
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Speculators were net buyers in 18 out of the 24 commodity futures tracked in this report. Buying was spread across all three sectors with the bulk once again being concentrated on the key crops followed by energy and precious metals.
The reporting period to October 22 covered a week where the dollar dropped, stocks rose, and bond yields grinded higher with U.S.-China trade talks and Brexit continuing to dominate risk appetite.
Buyers returned to crude oil for the first time since mid-September but skepticism about WTI and Brent’s ability to break higher was highlighted by the gross-short which rose to 217k, the highest since January. Overall the combine net-long in WTI and Brent rose by 13k lots following a 52k lots reduction during the previous four weeks.
Buyers also returned to gold and silver albeit at a modest pace with both metals having struggled recently to break out of their established ranges. However, following a few weeks of net selling both contracts are now in a better position to react to price friendly news such as the attempt witnessed on Friday when both metals, albeit not that successfully, popped higher.
Bearish copper bets were cut by 9k lots to a 12-week low as the metal rose for a third consecutive week. The latest move higher in response to progress in U.S.-China talks and not least supply concerns as mining operation in top producer Chile have been disrupted by the worst social unrest in decades.
Long positions in soybeans extended further on increase Chinese demand and late harvest risks to supply. The wheat position flipped back to a net long just before the contract saw its first decline since August as winter-wheat planting began to improve in parts of the Great Plains.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
