Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
US 10-year Treasury yields is retracing from the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 4%. But the trend is up and yields area likely to test February peak and resistance at around 4.08.
A break above 4.08 will quite likely lead to a bullish move to the 1.618 projection at 4.30% just around the October 2022 peak. Some resistance at around 4.22.
Positive RSI sentiment supports the uptrend scenario
German Government 10 year yields are rising in a fairly wide channel and seems on the move to previous peak at around 2.75. Positive RSI sentiment without divergence is supporting the bullish picture.
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 2.28 is needed. If that plays out a move to around 2% would be in the cards.