3.50 % is key for the short-and medium-term outlook on US 10-year Treasury yields. 4.75-5.00% could be reached in early 2023
3.50 % is key for the short-and medium-term outlook.
Medium- to longer term i.e., going in to 2023 I see US 10-year Treasury Yields going to 4.75-5.00%
A correction down to around 3.64 before a bounce to resume uptrend that could take yields to new highs in 4.75-5.00% in 2023
However, for the better part of the rest of 2022 we could see Yields being range bound between 3.50 and 4.25. A daily close below 3.50 a move to around 3.22 is likely.
Yields has formed a double top like pattern with potential down to around 3.50. However, it is not the most perfect pattern hurting the performance.
Bouncing from 0.786 Fibo retracement of the October up-leg at 3.73 the down ward move could be over. However, an exhaustive move down move to 3.64 % should not be ruled out – see medium-term outlook.
RSI has been rejected twice now at RSI 40. If RSI cannot close below 40 Bullish sentiment remains i.e., and yields are set to rebound from here. If yields get back above 4% uptrend is likely to resume for new highs.