Macro Dragon:  Sentiment = Still Bullish for Equities? Macro Dragon:  Sentiment = Still Bullish for Equities? Macro Dragon:  Sentiment = Still Bullish for Equities?

Macro Dragon: Sentiment = Still Bullish for Equities?

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Sentiment = Still Bullish?

Top of Mind…

  • From a US Equities perspective, the sentiment continues to be nothing but bullish – this virus could mutate, overwhelm entire cities overnight & we’d still probably rally
  • Partly joking, yet the key thing to remember here is… at least up until now, the sentiment has been very bullish & the overall price action higher has been strong.
  • Looking beneath the wave – the mean ≠ variance – we continue to see that financials continue to underperform (had to cut divs, buybacks & preserve capital as the balance sheet of main street sits on those big financial banks, JPM, BOA, WF, Citi, MS, GS) as well as some of the discretionary names, as well as companies with softer balance sheets.
  • Tech – as always it seems – continues to set the bell-curve… with Amazon exploding to all time highs… They are monopolies, they have little to no debt, they have way more Net Cash than the US government & they are thriving in a remote-only world
  • The NDQ is c. +175 in 2 wks… Amazon? +25% in 2wks… that just mind boggling when you think of its mkt size… this is not a stock going from $10m to $12.5m… this is stock that’s basically gone from c. +$950bn to $1.2 trillion… leaving Bezos net worth at c. $145bn.
  • Another odd $50bn & Bezos will be worth more than the entire economy of New Zealand. And KVP thinks there is a message there somewhere… in many ways corporations have fully evolved to be a new species sovereign entities… like governments except with solely the pros & none of the cons.
  • Would KVP short tech? Not in a trillion years…  KVP does not walk up steep hills… that’s not Macro… he walks downhill… being long Amazon to the hilt is floating downhill on petals & butterflies. Being short Amazon is blowing you out of the game. For one to win in the game, one must stay in the game
  • Meanwhile oil continues to collapse as the back end of the curve is starting to slowly calibrate than Jan 2020 (global oil demand & global growth) is not just a thing of the past, yet is likely not to come back in the future for 2-3yrs. Again sensational call by Ole on this from a number of a wks back… we’ve been singing the anthem hoarse here on the Dragon & kudos to the folks it resonated with. Yes, there may be tactical hocus-pucus Trump type tweets... yet again, until the global economy halts its free fall - any production cuts are completely meaningless 
  • Still a part of the curve is fast asleep on the car wheel that is parked in the home driveway, Dec WTI is actually ticking up this Asia Mon Morning at 33.82. You know those domino videos they show on line? That’s still what we have to see in the oil futures contracts…  there is not going to be a V-Shaped recovery people & things will not even be back to close to normal over the US summer (peak demand for oil).
  • We currently have over 21m people unemployed – thats c. 12% of the 165m labor market... that’s more job losses, than jobs created since the 2008-2009 financial crisis … we are likely to get at least up to 25-30m before all this is over… & it will take a while for those jobs to come back. No jobs, no driving, no discretionary spending, etc… all are not conducive to a floor for oil demand. From May, continuing claims & JOLTS will become the new jobless claims…
  • One thing is for sure - if you forcibly shut down the economy & people have/will have to crystallize personal & business losses... as the government you have to make them whole. Its no fault of theirs... but it will sure be the fault of the US government, if they don't put forward a lot more Fiscal relief-stability packages... another $500bn is a joke... we need Ts instead of Bs... Plus the individual states will also need a bailout... always paradoxical how Wasll Street always gets taken care of first & lip service is given to Main Street... 
  • Net-net... expect a lot more printing & debt... that is one of the few things you can say with almost pure certainty in these uncertain times... 


On The Radar Today…

Flash PMIs (Thu), when + how do we reopen (May-Aug) themed week 17

  • NZ: +0.8%a 0.4%e 0.5%p QoQ, 2.5%a 2.1%e 1.9%p YoY
  • EZ: GER PPI, Current Account, Trade Balance, Monthly Buba Report
  • CA: Wholesale Sales


Good luck to everyone out there, be nimble & position accordingly.  




The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong

By clicking on certain links on this site, you are aware and agree to leave the website of Saxo Capital Markets, proceed on to the linked site managed by Saxo Group and where you will be subject to the terms of that linked site.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

Please note that the information on this site and any product and services we offer are not targeted at investors residing in the United States and Japan, and are not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.