Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Note: This is marketing material.
All three major US indexes closed at record highs. While data showed elevated US inflation, labor markets continue to indicate weakness increasing the likelihood of rates cuts from the FED who meet next week. The AI tech boom continues to propel stocks higher with tech share performing well globally. Gold and Silver continued steady gains and copper continued to be well supported. More below in Key Stories.
Oracle skyrocket’s
Oracle jumped more than 30% after presenting quarterly results and a step-up in AI cloud bookings that exceed all market expectations. Oracle’s historic surge reset expectations for the entire AI supply chain, from chips to utilities.
Oracle's shock that shook the market
A week of IPO mania
Buy-now, pay-later firm Klarna jumps 30% in its trading debut. The IPO price was $40, raising $1.37billion. Shares reached a high price of $57.20 on 10th Sept before falling back. Klarna is the first of 3 high-profile tech firms to go public this week with Figure tomorrow and Gemini on Friday.
Is it the Dot-com bubble all over again?
Alibaba keeps making ground
Alibaba's stock surged after revealing strategies to strengthen its role in China's burgeoning AI sector. The company raised $3.2B for AI infrastructure and cloud services, launched updated Qwen-series models, and began using in-house chips instead of Nvidia accelerators.
Alibaba shares surge on increased AI efforts
US Data pulls the FED in opposing directions
US CPI inflation was broadly in line ticking up to +2.9% YoY. Core CPI was in line with expectations at +3.1%. At the same time jobs data continued to show weakness with initial unemployment claims rising to 263k vs 235k expected. USD OIS curve is now pricing 3x 25bps cuts this year.
Firm Inflation, soft jobs
Key economic data released next week includes US Aug Retail Sales (Tuesday). EUR and UK Aug CPI, US Fed Interest Rate decision (Wednesday). BoJ, BoE Interest Rate decisions, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Sept Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Thursday). Earnings to watch for are Cracker Barrel (tentative Wednesday). Fedex, Lennar (Thursday).